Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Michael Lynch's View on Peak Oil

Peak Oil is a theory that claims that the global petroleum production will eventually collapse due to unsustainable mining and incorrect use of the resource later creating an economic disaster. Michael Lynch takes us through his view on the Peak Oil theory and why he disagrees with it. Lynch believes that Faith Birol is the first to blame, being a top economist at the International Energy Agency whom scared the public, insisting that we will reach our peak moment in 10 years. In Lynch's argument, Lynch believes that the peak oil theory has been promoted by scientists who have based their conclusions on poor analyses. He also blames media and important figures like James Schlesinger and T. Boone Pickens whom he said to have "understandably alarm" the public. The study of the Oil Peak declared that by 1989, the peak would have been reached. Clearly, it has not. This kind of information is considered anecdotal information, vague references about the oil industry and how oil is obtained. Paul Roberts is one whom claimed the world's largest deposit is 35% water and rising, but Lynch claims that the buildup is caused by seawater being pumped in to make extractions easier. Lynch also stated that the estimated average for water was as high at 75%. Matthew Simmons, an investor, claimed engineers were using fuzzy logic to estimate oil holdings. Lynch says differently and retaliates by stating that fuzzy logic is outdated and technology is being used to find oil. Lynch also believes that petroleum geologists don't report recoverable oil as "newly discovered" so recoverable oil is often ignored and taken unknowingly in use of data. Lynch also argues that there are plenty of "easy oil" fields today that were used to be thought of as unreachable a few years back. Lynch makes a decent argument, declaring the opposing side and dismissing it quickly with his own facts. Lynch makes an interesting argument and although I may slightly side with him, he can be quite persuasive.